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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Mon 22 Sep 2025

19:00

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

50%

Marseille

1.99

19%

Draw

5.32

31%

Paris Saint Germain

3.23

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

6.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 2

6.9%

Draw

3 – 1

5.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.54

Marseille xG

Total xG

4.54

2.00

Paris Saint Germain xG

50%
19%
31%
MarseilleDrawParis Saint Germain

1.99

50%

Home win

5.32

19%

Draw

3.23

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

94%

Over 1.5

1.06

6%

Under 1.5

16.67

83%

Over 2.5

1.20

17%

Under 2.5

5.88

67%

Over 3.5

1.49

33%

Under 3.5

3.03

48%

Over 4.5

2.08

52%

Under 4.5

1.92

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

80%

BTTS Yes

1.25

20%

BTTS No

4.93

Clean Sheet

13%

Marseille

7.42

8%

Paris Saint Germain

12.69

Win to Nil

7%

Marseille

14.75

2%

Paris Saint Germain

41.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.3
1 2.7 5.4 5.4 3.6 1.8 0.7
2 3.4 6.9 6.9 4.6 2.3 0.9
3 2.9 5.8 5.8 3.9 2.0 0.8
4 1.8 3.7 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.5
5 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.3

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.541
λ Away (xG) 2.004
Total xG 4.545
League avg home goals 1.735
League avg away goals 1.227
Marseille attack strength 1.548
Marseille defence strength 1.008
Paris Saint Germain attack strength 1.620
Paris Saint Germain defence strength 0.946
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38