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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2

Kick-off

Sat 23 Aug 2025

16:00

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

64%

Marseille

1.56

21%

Draw

4.86

15%

Paris FC

6.57

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

11.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

11.3%

Home win

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.02

Marseille xG

Total xG

2.88

0.86

Paris FC xG

64%
21%
15%
MarseilleDrawParis FC

1.56

64%

Home win

4.86

21%

Draw

6.57

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

42%

Marseille

2.37

13%

Paris FC

7.50

Win to Nil

27%

Marseille

3.69

2%

Paris FC

49.28

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 4.9 2.1 0.6 0.1
1 11.3 9.8 4.2 1.2 0.3
2 11.4 9.9 4.3 1.2 0.3
3 7.7 6.6 2.9 0.8 0.2
4 3.9 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
5 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.015
λ Away (xG) 0.863
Total xG 2.878
League avg home goals 1.396
League avg away goals 1.225
Marseille attack strength 1.326
Marseille defence strength 1.015
Paris FC attack strength 0.694
Paris FC defence strength 1.088
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 35 / 1