Marseille 3-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Marseille at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Metz travel to Orange Vélodrome to take on Marseille in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026 at 21:05 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Marseille have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Marseille have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Metz have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Marseille are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Marseille have won 2, Metz 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Marseille 3–0 Metz — a Marseille win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Marseille in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Metz in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 60% versus Metz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 66% | Metz 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 2.31 xG and Metz 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.233 / defence 1.067 | Metz attack 0.662 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.191. Metz's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Marseille's projected output up. Metz's attack rating of 0.662 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Marseille's last 62 games and Metz's last 28.
Result probabilities: Marseille 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.43 | Draw 5.51 | Metz 8.55. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Marseille are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Marseille's last 10 home games and Metz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Marseille 60% (last 10 home games) | Metz 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 21:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Marseille 2.31 / Metz 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 1.233 / def 1.067 | Metz attack 0.662 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Marseille (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Metz xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Marseille vs Metz FAQs
What time does Marseille vs Metz kick off?
Marseille vs Metz kicked off at 21:05 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Metz?
Marseille 3 - 1 Metz.
Where is Marseille vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Metz part of?
Marseille vs Metz is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 70% chance of winning, Metz a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Marseille and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Marseille vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Marseille's attack at 1.23x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Marseille's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Marseille's last 62 games and Metz's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.51
12%
8.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Marseille xG
Total xG
3.16
0.84
Metz xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.51
18%
Draw
8.55
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
10%
10.12
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
86.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Marseille vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Marseille and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Marseille and 0.84 for Metz, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Marseille's recent record stands at 35W 9D 18L from 62 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 24L across 62 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Marseille have managed 19W 7D 5L from their last 31 home games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Marseille are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
Marseille (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Marseille
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Marseille vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Marseille and Metz in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 35W 9D 18L in their last 62 games (1.84 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Metz away?
Marseille's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 2.06 PPG; Metz away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Marseille have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Oct 2025, when Marseille won Metz 0-3 Marseille.
Marseille's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Marseille
3
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Marseille vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Metz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Marseille have won 3, Metz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Marseille 3-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Metz?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 68%, Metz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Marseille and 64% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Marseille vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Marseille and Metz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Marseille's games and 58% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Marseille and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Marseille's matches and 64% of Metz's.
Do Marseille and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Marseille's recent matches and 77% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Marseille cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Metz 3-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.31 xG and Metz 0.84 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.23 / defence 1.07 against Metz attack 0.66 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 29
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →