Lyon 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Saint Etienne travel to Groupama Stadium to take on Lyon. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Lyon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lyon, 0 for Saint Etienne and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Lyon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Saint Etienne trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 54% versus Saint Etienne 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Saint Etienne 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 3.08 xG and Saint Etienne 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.100 / defence 1.107 | Saint Etienne attack 0.758 / defence 1.814. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.420. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.814 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Lyon games / 10 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 75% | Draw 14% | Saint Etienne 11%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | Saint Etienne 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (3.08 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 70% | Saint Etienne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 75% | Draw 14% | Saint Etienne 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 67% | xG Lyon 3.08 / Saint Etienne 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.100 / def 1.107 | Saint Etienne attack 0.758 / def 1.814 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Lyon (75%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.08
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
67%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Lyon vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Lyon 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Lyon vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Saint Etienne part of?
Lyon vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 75% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lyon and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Lyon and Saint Etienne in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.08. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 3-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
75%
1.34
14%
6.97
11%
9.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
3 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.08
Lyon xG
Total xG
4.27
1.19
Saint Etienne xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.97
14%
Draw
9.06
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
5%
21.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
1%
197.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Lyon and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 3.08 expected goals for Lyon and 1.19 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 20W 8D 16L from 44 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 15L across 44 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.55 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.30 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 20W 8D 16L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 21W 8D 15L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Saint Etienne away?
Lyon's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.52 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lyon or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lyon
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 57%, Saint Etienne 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lyon) and 48% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 43%; Saint Etienne in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lyon's recent matches and 29% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lyon's recent games and 48% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 3.08 xG and Saint Etienne 1.19 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Saint Etienne attack 0.76 / defence 1.81, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 75% | Draw 14% | Saint Etienne 11%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Saint Etienne 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.55 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.