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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lyon run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Reims.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Reims 4-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.37 xG and Reims 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reims landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Reims attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 41% | Draw 32% | Reims 27%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 57%, Reims 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Reims's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.54 PPG, Reims 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights