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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sun 23 Feb 2025

19:45

Venue

Groupama Stadium

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Paris Saint Germain Win

31%

Lyon

3.19

28%

Draw

3.58

41%

Paris Saint Germain

2.46

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.9%

Away win

0 – 1

8.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.35

Lyon xG

Total xG

2.90

1.55

Paris Saint Germain xG

31%
28%
41%
LyonDrawParis Saint Germain

3.19

31%

Home win

3.58

28%

Draw

2.46

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.67

40%

BTTS No

2.50

Clean Sheet

21%

Lyon

4.73

26%

Paris Saint Germain

3.84

Win to Nil

7%

Lyon

15.08

11%

Paris Saint Germain

9.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5 8.6 6.6 3.4 1.3 0.4
1 7.4 11.5 8.9 4.6 1.8 0.6
2 5.0 7.7 6.0 3.1 1.2 0.4
3 2.2 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2
4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.346
λ Away (xG) 1.554
Total xG 2.900
League avg home goals 1.557
League avg away goals 1.336
Lyon attack strength 1.122
Lyon defence strength 0.771
Paris Saint Germain attack strength 1.508
Paris Saint Germain defence strength 0.771
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56