🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Marseille 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Marseille 1-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.86 xG and Marseille 0.98 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Marseille landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Marseille attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 58% | Draw 22% | Marseille 20%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 64%, Marseille 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Marseille's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.75 PPG, Marseille 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights