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Poisson rates Lyon at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Lille encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lyon welcome Lille to Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Lyon — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lyon's home record at Parc Olympique Lyonnais: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lille away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Lyon) versus 1.50 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Lyon, 2 for Lille and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Lyon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lyon in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Lille in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 57% versus Lille 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 62% | Lille 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.00 xG and Lille 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.126 / defence 0.836 | Lille attack 1.129 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.289. Data: 53 Lyon games / 53 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lyon 55% | Draw 22% | Lille 23%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Lille 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lyon 40% | Lille 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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