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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Sat 5 Apr 2025

20:05

Venue

Groupama Stadium

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lyon Win

53%

Lyon

1.90

24%

Draw

4.22

24%

Lille

4.25

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.9%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.77

Lyon xG

Total xG

2.89

1.11

Lille xG

53%
24%
24%
LyonDrawLille

1.90

53%

Home win

4.22

24%

Draw

4.25

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.27

Clean Sheet

33%

Lyon

3.04

17%

Lille

5.90

Win to Nil

17%

Lyon

5.76

4%

Lille

25.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 6.2 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 9.9 11.0 6.1 2.3 0.6 0.1
2 8.8 9.8 5.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 5.2 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.775
λ Away (xG) 1.111
Total xG 2.886
League avg home goals 1.489
League avg away goals 1.416
Lyon attack strength 1.313
Lyon defence strength 0.899
Lille attack strength 0.873
Lille defence strength 0.908
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 61