Lyon vs Estac Troyes – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lyon (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lyon face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estac Troyes make the trip to Parc Olympique Lyonnais to face Lyon in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lyon have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Parc Olympique Lyonnais this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Lyon. A 0.90 PPG lead over Estac Troyes (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Lyon have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Estac Troyes managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Lyon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lyon and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 48% versus Estac Troyes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 52% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.69 xG and Estac Troyes 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.125 / defence 0.754 | Estac Troyes attack 0.559 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Lyon's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Lyon games / 10 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 65% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 11%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 60% | Estac Troyes 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 65% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 35% | xG Lyon 1.69 / Estac Troyes 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.125 / def 0.754 | Estac Troyes attack 0.559 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Lyon (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Estac Troyes xG
35%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Lyon vs Estac Troyes is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
Where is Lyon vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Estac Troyes part of?
Lyon vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 65% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lyon and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Estac Troyes?
Record (4 meetings): Lyon 4W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Lyon and Estac Troyes in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lyon's attack at 1.12x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.56x) against Lyon's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
65%
1.55
24%
4.10
11%
9.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.24
0.55
Estac Troyes xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
9.04
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
2%
48.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Lyon and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lyon and 0.55 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Lyon have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 23W 8D 13L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 22W 9D 13L from 44 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Lyon against 1.70 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lyon have posted 2.27 PPG from 22 outings (16W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 7D 8L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lyon are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.52 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 23W 8D 13L in their last 44 games (1.75 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 13L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Estac Troyes away?
Lyon's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.27 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Lyon or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 4-1 on 19 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Lyon
0
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Lyon have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-3 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Estac Troyes?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 50%, Estac Troyes 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lyon) and 41% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 32%; Estac Troyes in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lyon's recent matches and 41% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lyon's recent games and 41% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More French football predictions →