Lorient 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Toulouse at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Lorient welcome Toulouse to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lorient — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lorient's home record at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lorient's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lorient, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lorient in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 60% versus Toulouse 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 62% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.06 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.872 / defence 1.245 | Toulouse attack 1.058 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.341. Data: 68 Lorient games / 68 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 22% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Toulouse 1.89. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lorient 50% | Toulouse 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 22% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Lorient 1.06 / Toulouse 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.872 / def 1.245 | Toulouse attack 1.058 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Toulouse xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Toulouse kick off?
Lorient vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Lorient 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Lorient vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Lorient vs Toulouse part of?
Lorient vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 22% chance of winning, Toulouse a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lorient and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Lorient 0W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Lorient and Toulouse in?
Lorient (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lorient's attack at 0.87x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
22%
4.49
24%
4.11
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.83
1.77
Toulouse xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
26.28
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lorient and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Lorient and 1.77 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Lorient have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 18D 29L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 22W 19D 27L from 68 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lorient on 1.19 PPG, Toulouse on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lorient have posted 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (12W 8D 14L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 13W 6D 15L from 34 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lorient are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 21W 18D 29L in their last 68 games (1.19 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 22W 19D 27L in their last 68 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.29 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lorient's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lorient
3
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Lorient have won 0, Toulouse have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Toulouse 1-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 59%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lorient and 62% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 32% of games; Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lorient's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lorient vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lorient's matches and 62% of Toulouse's.
Do Lorient and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Lorient 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Lorient 1-2 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.06 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Toulouse attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 22% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 62%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.19 PPG, Toulouse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.