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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sat 18 Apr 2026

16:00

Venue

Stade du Moustoir

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lorient Win

43%

Lorient

2.32

25%

Draw

4.02

32%

Marseille

3.13

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

1 – 0

7.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.67

Lorient xG

Total xG

3.08

1.41

Marseille xG

43%
25%
32%
LorientDrawMarseille

2.32

43%

Home win

4.02

25%

Draw

3.13

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.63

Clean Sheet

24%

Lorient

4.11

19%

Marseille

5.32

Win to Nil

10%

Lorient

9.54

6%

Marseille

16.63

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6 6.5 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
1 7.6 10.8 7.6 3.6 1.3 0.4
2 6.4 9.0 6.4 3.0 1.1 0.3
3 3.6 5.0 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.2
4 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.671
λ Away (xG) 1.414
Total xG 3.085
League avg home goals 1.473
League avg away goals 1.210
Lorient attack strength 1.051
Lorient defence strength 1.088
Marseille attack strength 1.073
Marseille defence strength 1.079
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 29 / 63