Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sat 30 Aug 2025

16:00

Venue

Stade du Moustoir

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lorient Win

54%

Lorient

1.84

22%

Draw

4.62

24%

Lille

4.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.7%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

7.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.99

Lorient xG

Total xG

3.25

1.26

Lille xG

54%
22%
24%
LorientDrawLille

1.84

54%

Home win

4.62

22%

Draw

4.19

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.62

38%

BTTS No

2.62

Clean Sheet

28%

Lorient

3.52

14%

Lille

7.34

Win to Nil

15%

Lorient

6.47

3%

Lille

30.74

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 4.9 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 7.7 9.7 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.2
2 7.7 9.7 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.2
3 5.1 6.4 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 2.5 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.994
λ Away (xG) 1.259
Total xG 3.253
League avg home goals 1.578
League avg away goals 1.099
Lorient attack strength 1.174
Lorient defence strength 0.952
Lille attack strength 1.203
Lille defence strength 1.076
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 2 / 36