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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sun 14 Sep 2025

14:00

Venue

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lille Win

41%

Lille

2.45

28%

Draw

3.61

32%

Toulouse

3.17

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.0%

Home win

0 – 1

10.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.28

Lille xG

Total xG

2.37

1.09

Toulouse xG

41%
28%
32%
LilleDrawToulouse

2.45

41%

Home win

3.61

28%

Draw

3.17

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.09

52%

BTTS No

1.92

Clean Sheet

34%

Lille

2.98

28%

Toulouse

3.60

Win to Nil

14%

Lille

7.30

9%

Toulouse

11.42

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.3 10.2 5.6 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 12.0 13.0 7.1 2.6 0.7 0.2
2 7.7 8.4 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 3.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.281
λ Away (xG) 1.091
Total xG 2.372
League avg home goals 1.655
League avg away goals 1.271
Lille attack strength 0.977
Lille defence strength 0.817
Toulouse attack strength 1.050
Toulouse defence strength 0.792
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 37 / 37