Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.05x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.75
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Lille xG
Total xG
3.33
1.24
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
3%
36.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Lille and 1.24 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.