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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Fri 17 Jan 2025

20:05

Venue

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lille Win

43%

Lille

2.30

26%

Draw

3.86

31%

Nice

3.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

1 – 2

7.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.72

Lille xG

Total xG

3.15

1.42

Nice xG

43%
26%
31%
LilleDrawNice

2.30

43%

Home win

3.86

26%

Draw

3.26

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

61%

Over 2.5

1.64

39%

Under 2.5

2.56

39%

Over 3.5

2.56

61%

Under 3.5

1.64

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.57

36%

BTTS No

2.75

Clean Sheet

24%

Lille

4.15

18%

Nice

5.60

Win to Nil

10%

Lille

9.56

5%

Nice

18.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.3 6.1 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.2
1 7.4 10.5 7.5 3.6 1.3 0.4
2 6.4 9.1 6.5 3.1 1.1 0.3
3 3.7 5.2 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.2
4 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.723
λ Away (xG) 1.424
Total xG 3.147
League avg home goals 1.554
League avg away goals 1.315
Lille attack strength 1.027
Lille defence strength 0.935
Nice attack strength 1.158
Nice defence strength 1.080
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 51