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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sat 8 Mar 2025

18:00

Venue

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lille Win

62%

Lille

1.62

24%

Draw

4.18

14%

Montpellier

6.98

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.5%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.9%

Home win

1 – 1

10.2%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.90

Lille xG

Total xG

2.72

0.82

Montpellier xG

62%
24%
14%
LilleDrawMontpellier

1.62

62%

Home win

4.18

24%

Draw

6.98

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.05

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

44%

Lille

2.27

15%

Montpellier

6.71

Win to Nil

27%

Lille

3.67

2%

Montpellier

46.83

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6 5.4 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 12.5 10.2 4.2 1.1 0.2
2 11.9 9.7 4.0 1.1 0.2
3 7.6 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.1
4 3.6 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
5 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.903
λ Away (xG) 0.819
Total xG 2.722
League avg home goals 1.560
League avg away goals 1.417
Lille attack strength 1.102
Lille defence strength 0.904
Montpellier attack strength 0.639
Montpellier defence strength 1.107
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58