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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lille and Marseille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille and Marseille finished level at 1-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.03 xG and Marseille 1.02 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lille fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.14 / defence 0.78 against Marseille attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 61% | Draw 21% | Marseille 18%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 49%, Marseille 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Marseille's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lille 1.77 PPG, Marseille 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights