Lille vs Lyon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Lyon at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lyon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lille at 1.80 PPG versus Lyon's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lyon, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Lille.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Lyon winning.
It is worth noting that Lyon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Lyon in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 40% versus Lyon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 35% | Lyon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.19 xG and Lyon 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.874 / defence 0.681 | Lyon attack 0.805 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Lille's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Lille games / 43 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 33% | Lyon 21%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Lyon 4.76. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 40% | Lyon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 33% | Lyon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Lille 1.19 / Lyon 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.874 / def 0.681 | Lyon attack 0.805 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lille (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Lyon xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Lyon kick off?
Lille vs Lyon is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Lyon part of?
Lille vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 46% chance of winning, Lyon a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lille and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
Record (10 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 3 | Lyon 5W.
What form are Lille and Lyon in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lille's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
46%
2.19
33%
3.01
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Lille xG
Total xG
1.91
0.72
Lyon xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lille and 0.72 for Lyon, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 10D 10L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.79 PPG from 43 outings (23W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.84 PPG, Lyon on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 10W 7D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Lyon in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Lyon in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Lyon have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Lyon away?
Lille's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.76 PPG; Lyon away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Lille or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lyon in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Lille's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
3
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 48%, Lyon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Lille) and 48% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lyon in 43%; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lille's recent matches and 48% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Lille's recent games and 48% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Lyon tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lyon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.