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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Fri 17 Apr 2026

19:45

Venue

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lens Win

59%

Lens

1.69

22%

Draw

4.57

19%

Toulouse

5.29

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.5%

Draw

2 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.08

Lens xG

Total xG

3.19

1.10

Toulouse xG

59%
22%
19%
LensDrawToulouse

1.69

59%

Home win

4.57

22%

Draw

5.29

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

62%

Over 2.5

1.61

38%

Under 2.5

2.63

39%

Over 3.5

2.56

61%

Under 3.5

1.64

22%

Over 4.5

4.55

78%

Under 4.5

1.28

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.45

Clean Sheet

33%

Lens

3.02

12%

Toulouse

8.01

Win to Nil

20%

Lens

5.10

2%

Toulouse

42.37

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.1 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
1 8.6 9.5 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.0 9.9 5.5 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 6.2 6.9 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 3.2 3.6 2.0 0.7 0.2
5 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.081
λ Away (xG) 1.105
Total xG 3.186
League avg home goals 1.466
League avg away goals 1.202
Lens attack strength 1.343
Lens defence strength 0.836
Toulouse attack strength 1.100
Toulouse defence strength 1.057
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 63