Lens 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lens vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nice make the trip to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to face Lens in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lens (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Lens have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lens's home record at Stade Bollaert-Delelis: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Lens against 1.50 for Nice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Nice have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lens's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Nice winning.
It is worth noting that Nice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Lens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 46% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lens 38% | Nice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.39 xG and Nice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 0.842 / defence 0.760 | Nice attack 1.071 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.283. Lens's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Lens games / 39 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 42% | Draw 33% | Nice 25%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Nice 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lens as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lens 50% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 42% | Draw 33% | Nice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Lens 1.39 / Nice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 0.842 / def 0.760 | Nice attack 1.071 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Lens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Lens xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nice xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Nice kick off?
Lens vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Nice?
Lens 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Lens vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Nice part of?
Lens vs Nice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 42% chance of winning, Nice a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lens and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Nice?
Record (6 meetings): Lens 1W | Draws 1 | Nice 4W.
What form are Lens and Nice in?
Lens (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Nice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lens's attack at 0.84x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nice's attack (1.07x) against Lens's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.00
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Lens xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Nice xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lens and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Lens and 1.04 for Nice, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lens come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 12D 11L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Lens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.59 PPG from 39 outings (17W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Lens against 1.59 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lens's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lens are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.38 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Nice in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Nice in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 16W 12D 11L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Nice have gone 17W 11D 11L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Nice away?
Lens's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.84 PPG; Nice away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Lens or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Nice in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lens won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lens
3
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Lens have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Nice 1-1 Lens.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 47%, Nice 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Lens) and 47% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Nice in 32%; Nice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lens's recent matches and 47% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lens vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Lens's recent games and 47% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Nice tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Nice in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens and Nice finished level at 0-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.39 xG and Nice 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lens fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.84 / defence 0.76 against Nice attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 42% | Draw 33% | Nice 25%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 38%, Nice 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nice's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lens 1.54 PPG, Nice 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.