Lens vs Montpellier – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lens's attack at 0.89x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.73x) against Lens's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.12
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Lens xG
Total xG
2.75
0.97
Montpellier xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
30.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lens and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lens and 0.97 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Montpellier?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.