Lens 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Lens take on Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Lens welcome Lille to Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lens stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lens's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Bollaert-Delelis this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Lens) versus 1.80 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lens, 2 for Lille and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lens in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Lille in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 45% versus Lille 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 38% | Lille 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 0.82 xG and Lille 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 0.797 / defence 0.669 | Lille attack 0.890 / defence 0.645. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.377. Lens's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.645 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lens's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Lens games / 42 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 29% | Draw 42% | Lille 29%. Fair-value odds: Lens 3.45 | Draw 2.38 | Lille 3.45. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Lille's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lens 40% | Lille 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 29% | Draw 42% | Lille 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 35% | xG Lens 0.82 / Lille 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 0.797 / def 0.669 | Lille attack 0.890 / def 0.645 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Lille xG
35%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Lille kick off?
Lens vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Lille?
Lens 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Lens vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Lille part of?
Lens vs Lille is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 29% chance of winning, Lille a 29% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lens and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Lille?
Record (6 meetings): Lens 2W | Draws 2 | Lille 2W.
What form are Lens and Lille in?
Lens (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lens vs Lille?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lens's attack at 0.80x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.44
42%
2.38
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Lens xG
Total xG
1.64
0.82
Lille xG
3.44
29%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 15.9 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Lens and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Lens and 0.82 for Lille, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens's recent record stands at 17W 14D 11L from 42 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 9L across 42 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lens on 1.55 PPG, Lille on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lens have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lille's away record stands at 7W 7D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Lille in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Lille in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 17W 14D 11L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Lille have gone 20W 13D 9L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Lille away?
Lens's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.80 PPG; Lille away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Lens or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Lille in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Lens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lens's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lens
2
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lens have won 3, Lille have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Lille 3-0 Lens.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 45%, Lille 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Lens) and 40% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Lille in 45%; Lille in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lens's recent matches and 45% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lens vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Lens's recent games and 40% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Lille tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lille in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Lens 0-2 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 0.82 xG and Lille 0.82 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lens fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.80 / defence 0.67 against Lille attack 0.89 / defence 0.65, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 29% | Draw 42% | Lille 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 38%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lens 1.55 PPG, Lille 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.