Lens vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lens at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lens vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lens — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lens have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lens are significantly better at Stade Bollaert-Delelis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lens 1.40 PPG, Le Havre 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lens, 1 for Le Havre and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Lens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lens in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 51% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 65% | Le Havre 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.62 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.220 / defence 0.965 | Le Havre attack 0.889 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.463. Data: 37 Lens games / 37 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 29%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 3.45. Lens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lens 50% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Lens 1.62 / Le Havre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.220 / def 0.965 | Le Havre attack 0.889 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Lens (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lens xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Le Havre xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Le Havre kick off?
Lens vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Where is Lens vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Le Havre part of?
Lens vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 45% chance of winning, Le Havre a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lens and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Lens 3W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Lens and Le Havre in?
Lens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lens's attack rating (1.22) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.77
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lens xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
Le Havre xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lens and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lens and 1.25 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens come into this having played 37 games, going 23W 4D 10L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (7W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lens's home form reads 14W 0D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Lens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 23W 4D 10L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 14L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Le Havre away?
Lens's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 2.47 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Lens or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Le Havre in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lens have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Lens's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lens
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lens have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Lens 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Le Havre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 41%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lens) and 18% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lens's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lens vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lens's recent games and 18% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Le Havre tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.