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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lens run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lens beat Angers 5-1 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.55 xG and Angers 0.62 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lens beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.21 / defence 0.80 against Angers attack 0.65 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lens 60% | Draw 25% | Angers 15%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 48%, Angers 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lens's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Angers's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lens (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights