Le Mans vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lille at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Mans vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Lille travel to Stade Marie-Marvingt to take on Le Mans. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Mans — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Mans, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Le Mans are significantly better at Stade Marie-Marvingt than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lille are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Le Mans in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Mans 56% versus Lille 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Mans 42% | Lille 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Mans 1.09 xG and Lille 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Mans attack 0.889 / defence 1.326 | Lille attack 0.985 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Lille's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Le Mans games / 43 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Mans 23% | Draw 26% | Lille 51%. Fair-value odds: Le Mans 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 1.96. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Le Mans 60% | Lille 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Mans vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Mans 23% | Draw 26% | Lille 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Le Mans 1.09 / Lille 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Le Mans attack 0.889 / def 1.326 | Lille attack 0.985 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lille (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Le Mans xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Lille xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Mans vs Lille kick off?
Le Mans vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
Where is Le Mans vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What competition is Le Mans vs Lille part of?
Le Mans vs Lille is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Mans vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Le Mans a 23% chance of winning, Lille a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Le Mans and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Le Mans vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Mans and Lille in?
Le Mans (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Mans's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Le Mans's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
23%
4.41
26%
3.80
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Le Mans xG
Total xG
2.81
1.72
Lille xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
4%
24.64
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Mans vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Le Mans and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.72 for Lille, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Mans vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Mans's recent record stands at 17W 18D 8L from 43 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Le Mans is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 10L across 43 games — 1.84 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Mans on 1.60 PPG, Lille on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Mans have managed 10W 8D 3L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lille's away record stands at 12W 3D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Le Mans are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Mans
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Mans and Lille in coming into this match?
Le Mans have gone 17W 18D 8L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Mans at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Mans at home: 1.81 PPG; Lille away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Le Mans or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lille in 42%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Mans see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Mans 38%, Lille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Le Mans) and 43% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Lille in 43%; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Mans home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Mans play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Le Mans's recent matches and 33% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Mans vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Le Mans's recent games and 43% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Mans and Lille tend to score early?
Le Mans have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.