Le Havre vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Le Havre at this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 0.90 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 48% versus Toulouse 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 30% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.46 xG and Toulouse 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.927 / defence 0.982 | Toulouse attack 1.053 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.329. Data: 34 Le Havre games / 33 Toulouse games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 38% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 38% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Le Havre 1.46 / Toulouse 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.927 / def 0.982 | Toulouse attack 1.053 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Toulouse xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 38% chance of winning, Toulouse a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Record (8 meetings): Le Havre 3W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.93) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
Toulouse xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.38 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 7W 14D 12L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. Le Havre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Toulouse's form line: 12W 8D 13L from 33 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. Toulouse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.06 PPG, Toulouse on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (5W 8D 3L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 6W 2D 8L from 16 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.42 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Pre-Season
Toulouse
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 14D 12L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Le Havre's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.44 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 56%, Toulouse 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Le Havre) and 56% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Le Havre's games and 56% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Le Havre's recent games and 56% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.