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Dominant Strasbourg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Le Havre 0-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.35 xG and Strasbourg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Strasbourg outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.67 / defence 1.35 against Strasbourg attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 28% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 47%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 50%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Strasbourg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.92 PPG, Strasbourg 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights