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Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Stade Brestois 29 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Stade Brestois 29 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.76 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.68 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 37%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 60%, Stade Brestois 29 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights