Le Havre 1-4 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stade Océane — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Paris Saint Germain haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 47% versus Paris Saint Germain 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.10 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.898 / defence 0.970 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.217 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.403. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Le Havre games / 34 Paris Saint Germain games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 25% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 50%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 2.00. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 25% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Le Havre 1.10 / Paris Saint Germain 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.898 / def 0.970 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.217 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Paris Saint Germain xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Le Havre 1 - 4 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 25% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.22x) against Le Havre's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
25%
3.97
24%
4.10
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.75
1.66
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
20.81
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.66 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 11D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. Le Havre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.24 PPG from 34 outings (22W 10D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. Paris Saint Germain haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 6W 2D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.53 points per game from 17 outings (13W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.38 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 65%.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Pre-Season
Paris Saint Germain
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 11D 16L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 22W 10D 2L in their last 34 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.18 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.53 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 41%, Paris Saint Germain 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Le Havre) and 47% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 47%; Le Havre have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Le Havre's recent matches and 53% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Le Havre's recent games and 47% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 1-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.10 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.66 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.22 / defence 0.82, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 25% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 50%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 50%, Paris Saint Germain 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.