Le Havre vs Paris FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Le Havre take on Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Paris FC at in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Paris FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–3 with Paris FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Paris FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 31% | Paris FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.98 xG and Paris FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.788 / defence 0.938 | Paris FC attack 0.816 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 36 Paris FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 36% | Paris FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Paris FC 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 50% | Paris FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 36% | Paris FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Le Havre 0.98 / Paris FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.788 / def 0.938 | Paris FC attack 0.816 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Paris FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris FC kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris FC is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris FC part of?
Le Havre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 31% chance of winning, Paris FC a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Le Havre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 4 | Paris FC 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.79) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
36%
2.80
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.00
1.02
Paris FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.02 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 15D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (12W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.00 PPG, Paris FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 8D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (4W 8D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris FC away?
Le Havre's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.28 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 56%, Paris FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Le Havre) and 44% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 39% of games; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Le Havre's games and 67% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Le Havre's recent games and 44% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris FC tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.