Le Havre vs Nice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Nice travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Le Havre, 3 for Nice and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 54% versus Nice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 37% | Nice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.08 xG and Nice 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.681 / defence 1.341 | Nice attack 0.894 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.300. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Le Havre games / 43 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 26% | Nice 48%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Nice 2.08. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Nice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 26% | Draw 26% | Nice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Le Havre 1.08 / Nice 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.681 / def 1.341 | Nice attack 0.894 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Nice xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Nice kick off?
Le Havre vs Nice is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nice part of?
Le Havre vs Nice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 26% chance of winning, Nice a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Le Havre and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nice?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 2W | Draws 1 | Nice 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Nice in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.68x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
26%
3.85
26%
3.83
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.64
1.56
Nice xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.56 for Nice, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 7W 16D 20L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice's form line: 11W 14D 18L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.86 PPG, Nice on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
On the road, Nice have gone 4W 4D 14L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.19 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Nice in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 games (0.86 PPG), while Nice have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nice away?
Le Havre's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.09 PPG; Nice away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Nice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Nice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Le Havre) and 59% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 36% of games; Nice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Le Havre's games and 59% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Le Havre's recent games and 59% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nice tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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