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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Le Havre 1-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.02 xG and Nice 1.82 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.60 / defence 1.29 against Nice attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 19% | Draw 27% | Nice 54%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Nice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights