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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Havre and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 12, as Le Havre and Nantes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.23 xG and Nantes 1.17 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Nantes attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 38% | Draw 28% | Nantes 35%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 58%, Nantes 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Nantes's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.04 PPG, Nantes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights