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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Nantes 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Nantes 3-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.28 xG and Nantes 1.59 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.66 / defence 1.37 against Nantes attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 30% | Draw 26% | Nantes 44%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Nantes 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Nantes's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.88 PPG, Nantes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights