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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Le Havre (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Océane — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Monaco have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Le Havre against 0.90 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Monaco in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 0W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Monaco winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Le Havre — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Monaco — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Le Havre 58% and Monaco 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 54% | Monaco 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.40 xG and Monaco 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.829 / defence 0.908 | Monaco attack 0.940 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.247. Data: 52 Le Havre games / 52 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 3.45. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 70% | Monaco 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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