Le Havre 0-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Océane — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monaco have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Le Havre against 0.90 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Monaco in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 0W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Monaco — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Le Havre 58% and Monaco 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 54% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.40 xG and Monaco 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.829 / defence 0.908 | Monaco attack 0.940 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.247. Data: 52 Le Havre games / 52 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 3.45. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 70% | Monaco 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Le Havre 1.40 / Monaco 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.829 / def 0.908 | Monaco attack 0.940 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Monaco xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Monaco kick off?
Le Havre vs Monaco kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Le Havre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Monaco part of?
Le Havre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 45% chance of winning, Monaco a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Le Havre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 3 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Monaco (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.94x) against Le Havre's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.74
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.47
1.06
Monaco xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.06 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 11D 27L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 25W 9D 18L from 52 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 14W 11D 27L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Monaco have gone 25W 9D 18L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.96 PPG; Monaco away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
3
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Monaco have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 60%, Monaco 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Le Havre and 64% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Le Havre's games and 68% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Le Havre's matches and 64% of Monaco's.
Do Le Havre and Monaco tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Monaco in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 19, as Le Havre and Monaco drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.40 xG and Monaco 1.06 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 45% | Draw 27% | Monaco 29%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 54%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.