Le Havre 1-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 1W 1D 8L at Stade Océane — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Monaco have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Le Havre against 1.70 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Monaco in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Monaco — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 52% versus Monaco 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 55% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.24 xG and Monaco 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.798 / defence 1.523 | Monaco attack 0.945 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.434. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Le Havre games / 64 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 22% | Draw 21% | Monaco 56%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Monaco 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 60% | Monaco 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 22% | Draw 21% | Monaco 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Le Havre 1.24 / Monaco 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.798 / def 1.523 | Monaco attack 0.945 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Monaco (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Monaco xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Monaco kick off?
Le Havre vs Monaco kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Le Havre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Monaco part of?
Le Havre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 22% chance of winning, Monaco a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Le Havre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 2 | Monaco 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Monaco (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.94x) against Le Havre's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
22%
4.46
21%
4.74
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.30
2.06
Monaco xG
4.46
22%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
13%
7.88
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
3%
35.15
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Le Havre and 2.06 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 15W 14D 35L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 36W 13D 15L from 64 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.97 PPG from 31 outings (9W 3D 19L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 15W 7D 9L from 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.95 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 15W 14D 35L in their last 64 games (0.92 PPG), while Monaco have gone 36W 13D 15L in their last 64 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.97 PPG; Monaco away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Monaco in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
3
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Monaco have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 45%, Monaco 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Le Havre and 71% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Le Havre's games and 71% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Le Havre's matches and 71% of Monaco's.
Do Le Havre and Monaco tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Monaco in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Monaco share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Monaco finished level at 1-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.24 xG and Monaco 2.06 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Monaco landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.80 / defence 1.52 against Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 22% | Draw 21% | Monaco 56%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 55%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.