Le Havre 0-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Metz travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Metz have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Metz are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Le Havre, 0 for Metz and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Metz in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Metz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 34% | Metz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.25 xG and Metz 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.694 / defence 0.995 | Metz attack 0.937 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.297. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Le Havre games / 29 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 29% | Metz 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Metz (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Metz 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 29% | Metz 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Le Havre 1.25 / Metz 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.694 / def 0.995 | Metz attack 0.937 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Metz xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Metz kick off?
Le Havre vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Metz.
Where is Le Havre vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Metz part of?
Le Havre vs Metz is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Metz a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Le Havre and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 2 | Metz 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Metz in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Metz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.69x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.43
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.46
1.21
Metz xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.21 for Metz, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 26W 25D 16L from 67 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 23L across 67 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.54 PPG, Metz on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 16W 9D 8L from 33 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 14W 7D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Metz in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 26W 25D 16L in their last 67 games (1.54 PPG), while Metz have gone 27W 17D 23L in their last 67 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Metz away?
Le Havre's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.73 PPG; Metz away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Metz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Le Havre's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
4
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Metz have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Metz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 33%, Metz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Le Havre) and 48% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Le Havre's recent matches and 54% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.25 xG and Metz 1.21 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.69 / defence 0.99 against Metz attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 29% | Metz 34%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 34%, Metz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.54 PPG, Metz 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.