Le Havre 0-4 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 0D 7L at Stade Océane — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Lyon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 3–1 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lyon trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 46% versus Lyon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.35 xG and Lyon 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.885 / defence 1.294 | Lyon attack 0.965 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.314. Data: 41 Le Havre games / 41 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 28% | Draw 31% | Lyon 41%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Lyon 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Lyon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 28% | Draw 31% | Lyon 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Le Havre 1.35 / Lyon 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.885 / def 1.294 | Lyon attack 0.965 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Lyon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Lyon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Le Havre 0 - 4 Lyon.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 28% chance of winning, Lyon a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 1 | Lyon 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Le Havre vs Lyon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.89) and Lyon's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
28%
3.52
31%
3.27
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.00
1.64
Lyon xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
18.18
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.64 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 11D 21L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.54 PPG from 41 outings (19W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 7W 2D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.44 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Lyon have gone 19W 6D 16L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.15 PPG; Lyon away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Lyon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 45%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Le Havre) and 60% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 45% of games; Lyon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Le Havre's matches and 60% of Lyon's.
Do Le Havre and Lyon tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lyon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lyon run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Le Havre 0-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.35 xG and Lyon 1.64 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lyon outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Lyon attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 28% | Draw 31% | Lyon 41%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.