Le Havre 0-3 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 0D 7L at Stade Océane — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lille have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Le Havre against 1.40 for Lille. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Le Havre, 2 for Lille and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lille — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 49% versus Lille 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Lille 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.32 xG and Lille 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.972 / defence 1.157 | Lille attack 0.907 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.269. Data: 39 Le Havre games / 39 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 33% | Draw 33% | Lille 34%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Lille 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Lille 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 33% | Draw 33% | Lille 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Le Havre 1.32 / Lille 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.972 / def 1.157 | Lille attack 0.907 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Lille (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lille xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lille kick off?
Le Havre vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Le Havre 0 - 3 Lille.
Where is Le Havre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lille part of?
Le Havre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 33% chance of winning, Lille a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Le Havre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Lille 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Lille in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.91x) against Le Havre's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
33%
2.99
33%
3.04
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.66
1.33
Lille xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.33 for Lille, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 11D 19L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille's form line: 18W 12D 9L from 39 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (7W 2D 10L).
On the road, Lille have gone 6W 7D 6L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.54 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Lille have gone 18W 12D 9L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.21 PPG; Lille away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lille in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 3-0 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lille 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 47%, Lille 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Le Havre) and 37% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 37%; Le Havre have failed to score in 42% of games; Lille in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Le Havre's recent matches and 53% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Le Havre's recent games and 37% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lille tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Lille in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Le Havre 0-3 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.32 xG and Lille 1.33 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.82, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 33% | Draw 33% | Lille 34%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Lille 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.