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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Angers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Angers 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.98 xG and Angers 0.88 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Angers attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 37% | Draw 32% | Angers 31%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 54%, Angers 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Angers's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.98 PPG, Angers 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights