Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Strasbourg travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Strasbourg — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Strasbourg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Strasbourg — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Estac Troyes, 0 for Strasbourg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2023, ended 3–2 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Strasbourg trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 62% and Strasbourg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Strasbourg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.14 xG and Strasbourg 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.773 / defence 1.218 | Strasbourg attack 1.142 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.241. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Estac Troyes games / 73 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 51%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Strasbourg 1.96. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Strasbourg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Estac Troyes 1.14 / Strasbourg 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.773 / def 1.218 | Strasbourg attack 1.142 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Strasbourg xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg part of?
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 24% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Estac Troyes and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 2 | Strasbourg 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.77x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
24%
4.09
25%
4.00
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.86
1.73
Strasbourg xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
4%
23.00
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.73 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 13W 21D 39L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Strasbourg's form line: 26W 23D 24L from 73 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Strasbourg are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 0.94 PPG from 36 outings (6W 16D 14L).
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 10W 12D 14L from 36 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.48 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 13W 21D 39L in their last 73 games (0.82 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 26W 23D 24L in their last 73 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Strasbourg away?
Strasbourg's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.94 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
3
Draws
0
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Strasbourg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 58%, Strasbourg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Estac Troyes) and 47% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Estac Troyes's games and 58% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 47% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 36, as Estac Troyes and Strasbourg drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.14 xG and Strasbourg 1.73 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Strasbourg attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 51%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Strasbourg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.