Estac Troyes 2-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Reims at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reims have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 0.90 (Reims). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 0 for Reims and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Reims in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 59% versus Reims 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 46% | Reims 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.47 xG and Reims 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.915 / defence 1.015 | Reims attack 0.968 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.473. Data: 46 Estac Troyes games / 46 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 38% | Draw 25% | Reims 37%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Reims 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Reims 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 38% | Draw 25% | Reims 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Estac Troyes 1.47 / Reims 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.915 / def 1.015 | Reims attack 0.968 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Reims xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Reims kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Estac Troyes 2 - 2 Reims.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Reims part of?
Estac Troyes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 38% chance of winning, Reims a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Estac Troyes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 0 | Reims 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Reims in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Reims (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.92) and Reims's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
38%
2.65
25%
3.95
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.91
1.45
Reims xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.45 for Reims, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 12W 12D 22L from 46 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 18L across 46 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.04 PPG, Reims on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 6W 8D 8L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Reims in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Reims have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.18 PPG; Reims away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Reims won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Reims have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Reims?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 54%, Reims 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Estac Troyes) and 41% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Estac Troyes's games and 59% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 41% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Reims tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Reims in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Reims share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 9, as Estac Troyes and Reims drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.47 xG and Reims 1.45 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 38% | Draw 25% | Reims 37%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 46%, Reims 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.04 PPG, Reims 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.