Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estac Troyes haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Paris FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.80 for Paris FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Paris FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Paris FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Paris FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 53% versus Paris FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Paris FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.25 xG and Paris FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Paris FC attack 0.973 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.287. Data: 0 Estac Troyes games / 34 Paris FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Paris FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | Paris FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Estac Troyes 1.25 / Paris FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Paris FC attack 0.973 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Paris FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Paris FC kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Estac Troyes 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC part of?
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 31% chance of winning, Paris FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Estac Troyes and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris FC?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Estac Troyes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.85x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.97x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.50
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.69
1.44
Paris FC xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.44 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 20W 7D 7L from 34 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. Estac Troyes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 12L across 34 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. Paris FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estac Troyes by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Paris FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 14W 1D 2L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Paris FC's away record stands at 4W 7D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC in 62%.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Pre-Season
Paris FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 20W 7D 7L in their last 34 games (1.97 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Paris FC away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.53 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris FC won 0-3 on 21 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 59%, Paris FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Estac Troyes) and 47% (Paris FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Estac Troyes's games and 71% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Estac Troyes's matches and 47% of Paris FC's.
Do Estac Troyes and Paris FC tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estac Troyes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.25 xG and Paris FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Paris FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 40%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 56%, Paris FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Paris FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.