Clermont Foot 2-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Clermont Foot welcome Toulouse to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 1.20 (Toulouse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Toulouse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 49% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 51% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.46 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.844 / defence 1.103 | Toulouse attack 1.000 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.608. Data: 43 Clermont Foot games / 5 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 31% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 44%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 31% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Clermont Foot 1.46 / Toulouse 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.844 / def 1.103 | Toulouse attack 1.000 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.608 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Toulouse xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Toulouse kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Clermont Foot 2 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Toulouse part of?
Clermont Foot vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 31% chance of winning, Toulouse a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Clermont Foot and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Toulouse in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.84x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.92
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.24
1.77
Toulouse xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
5%
19.25
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.77 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 11W 9D 23L from 43 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 7L across 43 games — 1.95 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 5W 6D 10L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 10W 6D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.07 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 24W 12D 7L in their last 43 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Toulouse in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Toulouse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Toulouse won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Toulouse?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Toulouse?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 62%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Clermont Foot) and 52% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Clermont Foot's games and 52% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 52% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Toulouse tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Toulouse 2-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.46 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Toulouse attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 31% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 44%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 51%, Toulouse 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.