Clermont Foot 0-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lille have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lille are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Lille 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 46% | Lille 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.70 xG and Lille 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.647 / defence 1.122 | Lille attack 1.080 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.033. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Clermont Foot games / 52 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 18% | Draw 35% | Lille 47%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 5.56 | Draw 2.86 | Lille 2.13. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 20% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 18% | Draw 35% | Lille 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Clermont Foot 0.70 / Lille 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.647 / def 1.122 | Lille attack 1.080 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Lille (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lille xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lille kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lille kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Clermont Foot 0 - 0 Lille.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lille part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lille is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 18% chance of winning, Lille a 47% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lille?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lille in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.65) and Lille's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.08x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
18%
5.51
35%
2.87
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.95
1.25
Lille xG
5.51
18%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
5%
19.26
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 17.8 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.25 for Lille, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 12D 21L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 26W 15D 11L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (10W 4D 12L).
On the road, Lille have gone 8W 10D 8L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.62 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lille in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Lille have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lille away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.31 PPG; Lille away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lille in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-0 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 38%, Lille 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Clermont Foot) and 35% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 31%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 42% of games; Lille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 54% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 35% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Lille tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lille in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Clermont Foot's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Lille finished level at 0-0 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.70 xG and Lille 1.25 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.65 / defence 1.12 against Lille attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 18% | Draw 35% | Lille 47%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 46%, Lille 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.