Clermont Foot 2-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Angers (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Angers's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Clermont Foot's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Angers's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Angers and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Angers — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Angers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 47% | Angers 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.42 xG and Angers 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.722 / defence 1.212 | Angers attack 0.580 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.269. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Clermont Foot games / 68 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 49% | Draw 28% | Angers 23%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Angers 4.35. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 50% | Angers 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 49% | Draw 28% | Angers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Clermont Foot 1.42 / Angers 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.722 / def 1.212 | Angers attack 0.580 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Angers xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Angers kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Angers?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Angers.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Angers part of?
Clermont Foot vs Angers is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 49% chance of winning, Angers a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Clermont Foot and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Angers?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 1 | Angers 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Angers in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Angers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.72x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.58x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.51
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.32
0.89
Angers xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.89 for Angers, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 16D 32L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Angers sit at 0.81 PPG from 68 outings (13W 16D 39L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.81 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 8W 9D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.61 points per game from 33 outings (3W 11D 19L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.99 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Angers in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Angers have gone 13W 16D 39L in their last 68 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Angers away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Angers away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Clermont Foot go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
0
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Angers?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Angers have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Angers?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 61%, Angers 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Clermont Foot) and 48% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 30% of games; Angers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Clermont Foot's games and 52% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 48% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Angers tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Angers in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Angers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Angers 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.42 xG and Angers 0.89 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Angers attack 0.58 / defence 1.42, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 49% | Draw 28% | Angers 23%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 47%, Angers 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.12 PPG, Angers 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.