Bordeaux 1-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 40%, yet in-form Monaco provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bordeaux vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Monaco travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 16:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.10 conceded. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bordeaux, 1 for Monaco and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 75% and Monaco 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 75% | Monaco 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.66 xG and Monaco 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.168 / defence 1.588 | Monaco attack 0.859 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.146. Data: 24 Bordeaux games / 24 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 40% | Draw 23% | Monaco 36%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Monaco 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monaco (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 90% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 40% | Draw 23% | Monaco 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Bordeaux 1.66 / Monaco 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.168 / def 1.588 | Monaco attack 0.859 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Monaco xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Monaco kick off?
Bordeaux vs Monaco kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Monaco?
Bordeaux 1 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Bordeaux vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Monaco part of?
Bordeaux vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 40% chance of winning, Monaco a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bordeaux and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 0 | Monaco 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Monaco in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (1.17) and Monaco's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
40%
2.48
23%
4.29
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.22
1.56
Monaco xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.56 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 4W 8D 12L from 24 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 7L across 24 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bordeaux heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.54 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Monaco in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 4W 8D 12L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Monaco have gone 10W 7D 7L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.91 PPG; Monaco away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Monaco runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Monaco?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Monaco have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2022, when Bordeaux 1-1 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bordeaux at 91%, Monaco at 46%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bordeaux) and 46% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Monaco in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Bordeaux's games and 46% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bordeaux's recent games and 46% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Monaco tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Monaco in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and Monaco share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 25, as Bordeaux and Monaco drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.66 xG and Monaco 1.56 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.17 / defence 1.59 against Monaco attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 40% | Draw 23% | Monaco 36%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 75%, Monaco 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.