Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Relegation Round as Auxerre welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Saint Etienne — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Saint Etienne's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Saint Etienne attack 0.784 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.299. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Auxerre games / 38 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 47% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 28%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 3.57. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 47% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Auxerre 1.60 / Saint Etienne 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Saint Etienne attack 0.784 / def 1.514 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Auxerre vs Saint Etienne is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 47% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Auxerre and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Saint Etienne in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Saint Etienne away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.02
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
Saint Etienne xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.17 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Pre-Season
Saint Etienne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Auxerre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Relegation Round, as Auxerre and Saint Etienne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Saint Etienne attack 0.78 / defence 1.51, drawn from 0/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 47% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 28%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.