Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.80 (Paris Saint Germain). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Paris Saint Germain have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
It is worth noting that Paris Saint Germain have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 46% versus Paris Saint Germain 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.09 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.935 / defence 0.982 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.171 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.296. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Auxerre games / 39 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 45%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Paris Saint Germain 2.22. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Auxerre 1.09 / Paris Saint Germain 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.935 / def 0.982 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.171 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Paris Saint Germain xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.76
28%
3.55
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.58
1.49
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.49 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 10D 19L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.15 PPG from 39 outings (26W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.10 points per game from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.10 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 26W 6D 7L in their last 39 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.40 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Paris Saint Germain 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 55% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 40%; Auxerre have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 55% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.